# Summary Class notes - scientific and statistical reasoning and psychological testing

##### Course
- scientific and statistical reasoning and psychological testing
-
- 2019 - 2020
- Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Psychologie
718 Flashcards & Notes
1 Students

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• ## 1567634400 college 2

• Describe the empirical cycle.
• Observation
• induction
• deduction
• testing
• evaluation
• induction
• What steps are taken during the induction step in the empirical cycle?
• A general rule is created
• What steps are taken during the deduction step in the empirical cycle?
• An expectation/prediction is formed based on the general rule created
• operationalisation takes place
• ## 1567720800 reasoning college 2

• The context can sometimes determine what the conclusion is.
• What are the benchmarks of rationality?
• Logical benchmark
• probabilistic benchmark
• rational decision benchmark
• Which benchmark of rationality is described; Consistency of belief, making deductively valid inferences.
The logical benchmark
• Which benchmark of rationality is described; the extend to which you think something is going to happen, is i line with the evidence of the chance that it is going to happen.
The probabilistic benchmark
• Which benchmark of rationality is described; consistency in your choices and preferences.
The rational decision benchmark
• Describe how the modus ponens works.
If p then q
p, therefor q
• Describe how the modus tollens works
If p then q
not q, therefor not p
• Describe affirming the consequent.
If p, then q
q, therefor p
invalid, q can still exist without p.
• Describe denying the antecedent.
If p, then q
not p, therefor not q.
invalid, q can still exist without p.
• When people have to check a rule with the wason card selection task, when do they perform best?
With real life examples compared to abstract examples.
• How do we call the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that affirms one's prior beliefs or hypotheses?
The confirmation bias.
• Of what is this an example;
p1. If you don't eat your vegetables, you get no dessert.
p2. I ate all my vegetables.
c. I get dessert.
Conversational implicature
• How do we call it when what is logically not implied, or derivable but it is what we conversationally mean?
Conversational implicature
• How do we call it when people judge the probability of obtaining a sample statistic without respect to the sample size?
Sample size neglect
• How do you calculate the expected value of a bet?
Expected value = chance of winning x prize - cost of ticket
• How do we call the tendency to determine probabilities based on how easily examples of it come to mind?
The availability heuristic
• When do people rely more on heuristics and biases?
When they are not motivated or not capable of processing the information
• Which three types of motivation are there, and how do they influence the extend to which heuristics are used?
• Accuracy motivation; no heuristics are used, opinion is desired to be as close to the truth as possible.
• defense motivation; heuristics are used, processing of information is done selectively to fit current way of thinking
• impression motivation; heuristics are used, leave a good impression on peers is more important than accurate opinions
• How do we call it when we think that a+b is more likely than a by itself, or b by itself?
The conjunction fallacy
• How do we call the value we attach to an outcome?
Utility
• How do we calculate expected utility?
Utility*probability of occurring
• How do we call the fact that the unpleasantness of a loss is larger than the pleasure of a similar gain?
Loss aversion
• How do we call it when an investment that is irretrievably spend, influences current decision making. The current decision will not change wether you spent the investment or not?
Honor sunken costs
• Which heuristic is used when we assess probability based on how much a case represents a certain category?
Representativeness heuristic
• How do we call it when we think that something increases in probability when it hasn't occurred in a while, like throwing six with a dice?
The gamblers fallacy
• What heuristic is used when people need to guess something, and they are influenced by a possible reference point provided in a statement?
• A metaphor works on the basis of the secondary connotation.
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How does the computer pick new questions in computerized adaptive testing
• Based on the information of the last question, and estimate is calculated of the extend to which the trait is present
• the next question is picked to have the highest information on that degree of trait presence
• Population and test independent
• Focus on items
• Statistical complex
• Needs large samples
• Instead of giving everyone the same items and the whole range of difficulty
• computerized adaptive testing will adjust difficulty of the next item based on the answer of the last item.
How can you tell that items are unfair towards certain groups?
If you suspect a group having a disadvantage on an item check the item curves for both groups, if they're different there is an disadvantage
What is a scale information function?
An information function of the whole test instead of just one item.
At which point of the item characteristic curve is the most information?
If the slope of the curve is maximum
What is this and what does this tell you
• This is an item information curve
• it shows around which degrees of the trait present the item discriminates, thus giving the most information
• the item doesn't discriminate much at the bottom end and top end of the trait dimension because everyone will fail or hit
• the item gives the most information just above average degrees trait present because it discriminates the most there.
From the results of an item response analysis, how do you know which items are weak?
When the discrimination is negative
How can you tell the item discrimination from the item characteristic curve?
The steepness of the curve, if the curve is very steep then a small increase in laten trait will result to a big difference in chances correct.
How can you tell the item difficulty from an item characteristic curve?
The number of the x axis that the middle of the curve is on.